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(1 votes) 
late in the tourney, we are 10th from 36 remaining players, villain just came to the table – no reads on him
its folded to me, call or fold?
Ongame Network $10,000 NL Holdem Rebuy No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t4000/t8000 Blinds + t800 – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
cossie0007 (MP1): BB = 7.4, t59186
wesc111 (MP2): BB = 13.5, t107823
Hero (CO): BB = 20.8, t166746
halloween239 (BTN): BB = 1.4, t11320
hhandw1 (SB): BB = 7.8, t62324
x_robert33 (BB): BB = 15.0, t119728
lelemati (UTG): BB = 11.6, t92665
Nannagry (UTG+1): BB = 11.8, t94496
ex6tence (UTG+2): BB = 33.9, t270997
Pre Flop: (t19200) Hero is CO with 9
9
lelemati raises to t91865 all in
I'm snapping this. You're way ahead of his 12BB shoving range, and it's BVB. Would he shove a premium into you like that? It seems like he's trying to get you to fold. I'm calling this, but I don't hate a fold since you can be flipping a good percentage of the time, although there's a lot of smaller pairs in his range.
October 6, 2010
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Moizt said:
I'm snapping this. You're way ahead of his 12BB shoving range, and it's BVB. Would he shove a premium into you like that? It seems like he's trying to get you to fold. I'm calling this, but I don't hate a fold since you can be flipping a good percentage of the time, although there's a lot of smaller pairs in his range.
July 3, 2010
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Being UTG doesn't make it that much closer here, in my opinion. People start jamming a lot lighter at this stack size when they know they'll drop below 10 bb if they have to fold both blinds and be in LP with no fold equity the next orbit …
From the co I am reshoving here. I think you are well ahead of his range and you only have 3 players to act behind. If you were in an earlier position then it is closer for me, utg+1 would be awkward.
July 3, 2010
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It's a reshove from anywhere because only one person covers you and the others will have to have JJ+ to consider a call.
thx guys, i was not sure because of the pos of villain (UTG) and also because of our pos in the tourney 10/36
but i guess you are right, against his range we are slightly ahead so going with it is the right thing
October 6, 2010
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i think the fact that we are 10/36 is a lot more important than the fact that villain is UTG, because we really want to be preserving our stack i think. but if you think villain is going to shove 55-88 here i think its definitely time to get it in
Readless, I am not so quick to flip for more than half my stack here. Any decent player is open jamming 88+ here and other hands that we are flipping with. We are in good position overall and we can get more value using our stack for 3bets and 3bet shoves.
i gave it a lil thought and deceided to fold, exactly because of the reasons hawkeye mentioned.
but because there were still 36 players remaining im not sure if this was right cause like i said i think against his range (i gave him a much lighter one than 88+) 99 is slightly favoured. and im still alive if im losing.
play to win = shove, right?!
btw he showed AQo
I'm not great at math but I think it's fairly easy to figure out our ev if we call here. If we assign villain's range at: 22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A7o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo which comes out to 25.8%, our 99 is a 58% favorite.
A simple ev calc shows this as being a +24,396 play or 15% of our stack.
After seeing the numbers, I'm pretty sure we can't afford to pass spots like this.
mmfitter, i'm not sure it's quite that simple. For one thing I think the range you have assigned is too wide for most players there, but also you have to consider the times you are getting called behind, which will normally be JJ+ and maybe AK.
Interesting to see a split in views on this though, nice post badabing!
We got to use the information we have. The only information we have here is that he is open shoving UTG with 12bb's. I think giving a wide range here is a mistake when we are making a decision for over half our stack. I think any thinking player would rather wait for blinds to go through and open shove in position than do it here light UTG with everyone to act behind. If you are confident in your ability to accumulate chips with 20bb's then I think this is high variance spot that you dont need to play for the win.
Any thinking player will shove optimally fr utg according to optimal push/folds, the above range is about what your supposed to shove with that stack.
I think not making the correct shove bec you think it's a little wide and letting the blinds go through you to wait for better position to do it and letting your stack get even shorter, would not be advised by most successful mtt'ers.
Here, we're trying to range utgs range, right? The better we think he is, the “wider” he will shove imo.
25% of hands is way to wide. I will try to explain this on the fly
and this is how I would do some rough math away from the table. This
isn't going to be exact but it should give you an idea of how close
these situations actually are, especially when there are players left to
act.
Opponent will probably be shoving based on 11
bb effective stack and use a non exploitable range. This would be a safe assumption I think conisdering how widely popular non exploitable play is. If that is the case than the result would be 13.7%
of hands, 22+ A9s+ A5s AJo+ K9s+ KQo QTs+ JTs T9s. (I used this range
because for arguments sake it is wider than a 11.5 or 12bb shove range
but I still feel that it's too wide)
If
UTG does shove that wide than we will have 55% equity in the HU pot.
There is still two players left to act (I don't have the time or energy
to run the math with the 1.5bb stack but I am sure that we can simply
ignore it because it will have little effective on the results. would
assume that the two players left to act will call at least 4.2% of hands,
so there will be a cold call behind us ~8.4% of the time. If they are
calling with JJ+, AQ+than our equity in a three way pot (take a moment
to snicker) is about 30%. So…
91.5% of the time we play heads up for 11.6bbs+20.8bbs+2.4bbs (or 34.8bbs) and we will win 55% of the time
8.5% of the time we play a three way pot for
11.6bbs+20.8bbs+15bbs (use the largest stack behind, that is what we
want to take ito consideration)+2.4bbs (49.8bbs) and we will win 30% of
the time.
EV=(91.5%*34.8*55%)+(8.5%*49.8*30%)-Starting Stack
EV=17.5131+1.2699-20.8
EV=-2.017
It's
important to consider the loss of our starting stack. If the stack
sizes where further apart than I would do the math a little different
but if we lose at showdown we are going to loose a lot of our fold
equity
(With<10bbs we will be looking to open shove in the next two
orbits). I like using the math and formula above when we will be left with <10bbs because it's
conservative and it helps to take into consideration the loss of our
stack. We want to consider the lose of our stack because in this
instance it will completely change our game plan going forward. We are
going to lose at showdown 91.5%*(1-55%)+8.5%*(1-30%) or 47% of the
time
and be left with less than half our stack or worse.
When I am not as tired I might put up a formula and
example on how to solve for players left to act and effective stack
sizes. It's long and complex and I don't think that many people do it
properly and rather use a formula like above.
Last thought we should consider that this is an on game network torney and average stack size is pretty shallow. If this is not a turbo that I would assume that players are playing pretty tight preflop. I haven't played on On game so can not speak to the tendencies of players there but you would want to consider that also.
Sorry I also wanted to include the below link. This would assume that the villain is a crazy sick mahine who plays perfect and non exploitable poker. Most players would not know how to adjust to all the dynamics of the stack sizes but you can see that his range actually narrows a little from what I provided.
UTG shove range is 12.1%, 55+ A8s+ AJo+ K9s+ KQo QTs+ JTs
and our calling range is 5.9%, 88+ AJs+ AQo+ (assuming cEV)
99 would be an EVdiff% of 1.24 but again this does not consider the fact that losing the showdown really sucks. If you think you hve any edge over the players than I probably save my stack to apply pressure by shoving. (If I have like 30+bbs I am snapping FWIW)
Yeah, I must admit the utg shover's range I used is too wide for most players, but I do believe many good players will shove wider than what's considered optimal bec the charts don't take into account our stack getting even shorter after the blinds hit us the very next 2 hands. If we use 14%, then the +chip ev is cut way down to 10,364. I guess if we have a good read that utg is shoving 10% or less, then a call may be questionable.
I think it's good to talk about this hand here because it's one of those tough spots that does come up pretty often with middle pp type hands.
Recently at a live big field 2 day event at Borgata, I faced a similar spot towards the end of day 1. We were in the money with about 60 left – the bubble broke at about 90 players and there was only about 1 hour of play left in day 1. I had 77 on the butt w about 20 bbs and a mp player, who had been playing his 10-15 bb stack like a typical live player would, such as raise/folding w that stack, open shoved for the very first time w 11 bbs. There were two players in the blinds to my left who both had 35-50 bb stacks. I tanked and thought 66 would be a fold and 88+ would be a probable call, but I wasn't sure about 77 and I folded.
I did bring up that hand to several pros who's opinions I respected over the next couple of days, and most leaned towards a call, but almost all saying it's close and player dependant.
So it would be kind of nice to know what your default play would be in a similar spot before facing that tough spot at the table.
Hi guys.This is a super easy call for me i don't understand how you can fold 99 there,especially without any reads.flips are our friends
July 3, 2010
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Folding here is a really big leak and it's playing to not go for the win, in my opinion. He's shoving all pairs and plenty our suited Ax where his kicker is lower than our pair.
If we win this hand, and it's a great spot, we'll hve 30+ bb's and can abuse the table. I really can't find a reason to fold.
TPE Pro
TPE Management
July 20, 2010
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i dont know how i could pull this off but id prolly have it in before they can get it in ya know break your arm off reshipping. Would be going in without any hesitation
We really need to consider the information that we have available and not simply our hand
1) Currently 10/36 with our 20bb stack. This means that we are well ahead of average ATM. (the table average is 13.8bbs). Since the stacks are so shallow having a stack to three bet fold is not as important as having a stack to shove. If we win and get to 30bbs we are still going to be playing an average effective stack of 13bb and basically be raise calling or opening jamming. I would assume that the player on the table with 30+bbs is in the top three in chips ATM
2) If we call and lose we will have <10bbs and lost the majority of our fold equity. We will be below the average stack and will have about 5 hands before the BB hits us. Judging by the responses this will be putting us into a position where we are going to be shoving 25%+ of hands and trying to get though 5-7 opponents before we are in the big blind
3) If we fold we still have enough chips to cover the four players to our left and apply maximum pressure by shoving when folded to us. We will likely find a shove in the next orbit that will net the same gain in chips while minimizing the frequency that we loose at showdown.
I still think that ranging the opponent wider than the 14% of hands would be a mistake. We have no information to say that he would jam wider than what is required in this spot. Anyhow I did the full math for my assumptions and the cEV is about 2.64 which is a lot however we will lose at showdown about 48% of the time which is a lot too. Since I don't need 30bbs ATM I would be passing this spot. If I was playing a game where I knew I could three/bet fold my way to victory I would have no problem calling off 20bbs here, even if it was breakeven in cEV, however we gain little by getting to 30bbs and lose a lot when we drop below 10bbs.
| SOLVE FOR WT$SD | |||||
| Heads up pot | 91.5% | Equity | 55% | 50.33% | |
| 3way pot* | 8.5% | Equity | 30% | 2.55% | |
| *assuming two players left to act | WT$SD: | 52.88% | |||
| SOLVE FOR GAIN IN BBs | |||||
| BBs | EQ | ||||
| Gain Heads up | 14 | 7.7 | |||
| Risk Heads up | -11.6 | -5.22 | |||
| Frequency | 91.5% | 2.2692 | |||
| Gain 3way | 28 | 8.4 | |||
| Risk 3way | -15 | -10.5 | |||
| Frequency | 8.5% | -0.1785 | |||
| ~cEV | 2.6492 | ||||
once again,please don't fold 99 at these spots,your process is just wrong.play to win and don't give any attention if you are 10/36 or 1/36.the big money are only in first places,no one will give you credit if you just reach the final table.This hand is so clear,we are ahead of his range,nothing more to say.
one more thing 🙂
what is the bottom of your range with which you would go here?
badabing78 said:
one more thing 🙂
what is the bottom of your range with which you would go here?
Probably 88+, AJs, AQo
Ship it. An UTG shove of 12BB does not necesarily mean he has a big hand. He's prob aware hes hitting the blinds next hand and could b shoving a wide range here — im always calling.
badabing78 said:
thx guys, i was not sure because of the pos of villain (UTG) and also because of our pos in the tourney 10/36
but i guess you are right, against his range we are slightly ahead so going with it is the right thing
Obviously there are hands in his range that crush you its just part of poker. Having said that I think your way more then slightly ahead of his range. Some people when they are short hate hitting the bb like this guy will do on his next hand. I wouldnt be suprised to find him roll over 2 unders ie 56 suited etc. He is shoving a huge range here. Easy reshipaments for the bigdogpckt5s.
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